Minnesota has been having the copper-nickel argument for more than a decade. In that time it has become less an argument about a mine than a loyalty test — say the word "PolyMet" and a room sorts itself. I'm going to try to do something less satisfying and more useful: report what has actually happened, let both sides speak in their own words, and be honest about the part almost nobody is discussing.
Because while that argument ran, something concrete happened on the Iron Range. And it had nothing to do with copper.
The crisis that actually occurred
Minnesota taconite production fell from 34.6 million tons in 2024 to 28.55 million tons in 2025. At the Minorca mine, output collapsed from 2.6 million tons to 550,000.
In March 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs announced idles at Hibbing Taconite and Minorca — by the company's own letters, 230 union and 25 salaried workers at Hibbing, 300 union and 42 salaried at Minorca, effective that May. A further 45 jobs went in February 2026. A company vice president said of the idles: "we cannot predict their length."
They still haven't restarted. On its first-quarter 2026 earnings call, Cleveland-Cliffs forecast its best quarter in two years and did not mention either mine by name.
The Legislature did respond — a year of unemployment benefits in a 2025 deal, then a six-month extension. That extension expired on May 24, 2026. For roughly 650 laid-off miners, the safety net is gone. A United Steelworkers representative described what that looks like: "Now's the time when it starts to get scary. We got the six-month extension, but now that has lapsed." His members are picking up carpentry, welding, and logging work, and building garages to get through — and his worry is seasonal: "A lot of them are taking summer-type jobs, but what happens when winter comes and those jobs disappear?"
That is the Iron Range's actual, present, measurable emergency. It was caused by steel demand and company decisions, not by a permit. And it has received a fraction of the attention devoted to mines that do not yet exist.
Where the copper-nickel projects actually stand
NorthMet (NewRange, the PolyMet–Teck joint venture). The company holds 21 of the 24 permits it needs. The three it doesn't are the ones that matter. The federal wetlands permit was revoked in 2023; the company reapplied in July 2026, with the public comment period closing September 12, 2026. The state water permit was reversed and remanded by the Minnesota Supreme Court on August 2, 2023. On the permit to mine, an administrative law judge recommended denial in November 2023, and proceedings were stayed a year later. In July 2026 the company proposed a redesign: tailings into existing pits, throughput up from 32,000 to 40,000 tons a day, mine life cut from 20 years to 16, and discharge cut about 75 percent. Whether that redesign triggers a new round of environmental review was, as of this writing, an open question at the DNR.
Twin Metals. Its federal leases were canceled in 2022 and the Boundary Waters watershed was withdrawn from mineral leasing for twenty years. In 2026 Congress reversed that withdrawal — the Senate voting 50–49 on April 16, signed April 27. The leases had not been reissued as of late August. Governor Walz responded with an executive order on August 18, 2026.
Tamarack (Talon Metals). About $186 million invested, roughly 80 employees in a town of 62 people, a $114.8 million Department of Energy grant for a processing facility that may be redirected to Michigan, state environmental scoping opened in July 2026, and a construction target of 2029.
Ten years. Hundreds of millions spent. Not one ton of copper mined.
Both arguments, fairly
For: The Iron Mining Association and University of Minnesota Duluth researchers put Minnesota's existing mining economy at roughly 11,600 jobs and $4 billion, with each mining job supporting additional employment in the region — the multiplier commonly cited is 1.8, though MinnPost, in reporting it, noted honestly that "various studies of mining spinoff jobs have shown figures less and more than 1.8." A 2017 study projected that a mining ban put 5,000 to 22,700 jobs at risk. The Steelworkers' position is not subtle: mining "is all we have in northeastern Minnesota."
Against: A Harvard-led analysis running 72 economic scenarios found that in 96 percent of them the region was better off with a mining ban than with sulfide mining in the Boundary Waters watershed — the argument being that a permanently protected wilderness generates more durable value than a 16-to-20-year mine.
And the market, which gets a vote: The demand case for Minnesota nickel has weakened badly. About 70 percent of Chinese EV makers have shifted to lithium-iron-phosphate batteries, which use no nickel. One major analyst cut its 2030 nickel demand forecast from 1.2–1.5 million metric tons to roughly 800,000. Whatever anyone thinks of the environmental case, a project premised on an EV nickel boom is being underwritten by a boom that is not arriving on schedule.
The part a DFL candidate is supposed to skip
Here is where I'd normally be advised to change the subject. I won't.
When the Governor issued his August order, the sharpest response came from labor — not from industry, from the union. The Director of United Steelworkers District 11: "Our union has always backed responsible mining… But responsible mining is more than simply saying no. It requires working with companies and communities alike to ensure future projects meet all stakeholders' needs. The governor's order missed the mark." A District 11 representative with 32 years in mining put it harder: "I've never been so offended by a decision in my 32 year career… This is the biggest slap in the face for the Iron Range in 100 years."
And a sitting DFL state senator from the region, Grant Hauschild, said the thing I believe is exactly right — about his own party's governor:
"My constituents are sick of executive overreach by people who no longer feel accountable to the voters or the legislators process, whether that's in St. Paul or in Washington. The truth is, no one can honestly say whether they support a mining project before it has gone through the full environmental review. Minnesota has some of the strongest environmental and labor standards in the country. If a project can't meet them it shouldn't move forward. I also believe politicians shouldn't pick winners and losers and decide the answer before the science and the process have their say."
That is my position, and I'd hold it in either direction. A politician who promises to approve a mine before the review is finished is doing the same thing as a politician who promises to kill it — substituting a press release for a process that exists precisely because these questions are too technical and too consequential for either. Minnesota has environmental standards and labor standards. Apply them. Publish the findings. Let the answer be whatever the record supports — and let it arrive fast enough that a family can plan around it.
Ten years of stalemate is not caution. It is a decision nobody has to sign their name to.
The diversification promise, audited
There is a third path everyone endorses at ribbon-cuttings: diversify the regional economy. Minnesota funds an agency for exactly that, the Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation board.
The Legislative Auditor examined it and found that of fifteen loans reviewed, only two showed job growth aligned with the program's objectives, while losses at a state-owned recreation property had grown fivefold. If we are going to tell miners that diversification is the answer, we owe them a diversification program that can survive an audit. That one couldn't.
What we can do
Deal with the emergency actually in front of us. Six hundred fifty families lost benefits in May, in a downturn driven by steel markets, not permits. Bridge support, retraining tied to jobs that exist, and straight answers about whether those plants restart are worth more to the Range this year than any position paper on copper.
Finish the reviews. Set deadlines the agencies must meet, publish findings in plain language, and stop letting "pending" function as a permanent answer. Both sides deserve a decision they can appeal, not another decade of limbo.
Audit the alternative. If diversification is the promise, hold the agency delivering it to a measurable standard — the same standard this series has applied to every other program.
And drop the loyalty test. Both parties have used the Iron Range as a symbol in an argument being conducted somewhere else. The people who live there are not a symbol. They are welders and electricians and equipment operators whose unemployment ran out three months ago while the rest of us kept arguing about a mine that hasn't broken ground.
First the facts. Then the fix. Even when the facts are inconvenient for your own side — especially then.
Sources
Production and layoffs: Mesabi Tribune production tables (2024–2025, statewide and by plant); Cleveland-Cliffs notification letters and company statements on the March 2025 idles at Hibbing Taconite and Minorca effective May 2025, and the February 2026 reduction; Cleveland-Cliffs first-quarter 2026 earnings call. Unemployment: Minnesota Reformer (May 23, 2025) on the year of benefits in the legislative deal; Northern News Now (Feb. 18, 2026) on the six-month extension; Mesabi Tribune confirming expiration May 24, 2026, with United Steelworkers District 11 quotations. NorthMet: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers permit file 1999-05528-WMS (July 2026 reapplication; comment period closing Sept. 12, 2026); the Minnesota Supreme Court decision of Aug. 2, 2023 reversing and remanding the water permit; administrative law judge recommendation (Nov. 2023) and stay (Nov. 2024); the company's July 2026 redesign announcement. The Department of Natural Resources' determination on the level of environmental review for that redesign had not been reported as of publication and is stated here as open. Twin Metals: the 2022 lease cancellation and the twenty-year mineral withdrawal; H.J. Res. 140 (Senate 50–49, Apr. 16, 2026; signed Apr. 27, 2026); the Governor's executive order of Aug. 18, 2026. Talon Metals: company disclosures on investment and employment, the Department of Energy grant, and DNR scoping opened July 14, 2026. Economic estimates: Iron Mining Association of Minnesota with University of Minnesota Duluth (11,600 jobs, $4 billion); the 1.8 multiplier as reported by MinnPost (Mar. 28, 2023), with that outlet's own caveat; the 2017 study projecting 5,000–22,700 jobs at risk; the Harvard-led 72-scenario analysis. Nickel demand: Wood Mackenzie analysis of LFP battery adoption and revised 2030 forecasts. Reaction to the August 2026 executive order: United Steelworkers District 11 director and staff representative statements; State Sen. Grant Hauschild (DFL-Hermantown), quoted at length. Iron Range Resources and Rehabilitation: Office of the Legislative Auditor evaluation (2016).
Layoff totals are reported variously as 600, 630, and 650 across outlets; this article uses the figure the union used in discussing benefit expiration. Wetland acreage figures also vary by source and are not cited. A critique frequently attributed to economist Thomas Power could not be sourced to a specific published report and is not used here. Corrections: campaign@madgettformn.com.